Welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Peter Hamby. Tonight, piping hot
new polling from our partners at Echelon Insights on whether Americans think Donald Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize—and why ICE is wreaking havoc on his political standing.
Up top, I’ve got the scoop on a private Democratic poll showing which potential 2028 candidates are winning over voters with their responses to the Minnesota crisis—and which Dems are whiffing. Plus, Leigh Ann is here with the latest Kristi Noem impeachment
chatter, and Abby has an update on the Democrats’ generational succession.
Also mentioned in this issue: Alex Pretti, Josh Shapiro, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Robin Kelly, Thomas Massie, Eleanor Holmes Norton, María Corina Machado, Scott Bessent, and many more…
Let’s get started…
|
- How
to talk about Minnesota: Following the killing of Alex Pretti by U.S. Border Patrol agents on Saturday, every major figure in the Democratic Party responded with shared outrage but different language. Now, thanks to a private “close hold” polling memo circulating among Democrats that I obtained on Tuesday, we have some data about which words related to the two recent ICE/C.B.P. killings in Minnesota were most likely to drive up Trump’s disapproval
rating—and push voters toward Democrats.
Blue Rose Research, the secretive Democratic polling outfit, went into the field for two days following Pretti’s killing to test 57 unique Democratic and Republican messages. The best-performing response, driving Trump’s “disapproval percentile” to 72, came from Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who wrote on X that
“ICE’s clear abuses of power are only creating danger in our communities,” that “law enforcement’s goal should always be to keep people safe and build trust,” and that ICE was “violating people’s constitutional rights” and needed to “stop wreaking havoc.”
Also driving up Trump’s disapproval rating were comments from Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, and Minnesota Sen. Amy
Klobuchar, among others. What did their statements have in common? In their memo, Blue Rose concluded messages that “focused on de-escalating and emphasized specific, measured demands for public safety, accountability, and protecting constitutional norms performed better than those that
called for abolishing ICE or tied the administration’s actions to rising authoritarianism.”
Meanwhile, some of the messages that most alienated voters from Democrats came from liberal pundits and Democratic politicians wielding heated rhetoric—including Gavin Newsom, who said “Trump made a shooting happen”; Zohran Mamdani, who called for ICE to be abolished; and Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who said Trump
officials “have blood on their hands.” Notably, Blue Rose also tested two different messages from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: One of her posts, calling on Senate Democrats to block ICE funding this week while sending the National Guard into Minnesota, was popular with voters (yielding a “Trump disapproval percentile” of 55 percent). The other, accusing the Trump administration of “tyranny,” was a dud (24 percent).
|
|
|
SPONSORED BY: COALITION TO STRENGTHEN AMERICA'S HEALTHCARE
|
Behind many dangerous delays in care are insurer practices that prioritize administrative hurdles over patients. Excessive prior
authorization requirements and AI-assisted coverage denials pull clinicians away from the bedside and bury care decisions in paperwork. While hospitals work around the clock to deliver timely, life-saving treatment, insurer delays and denials slow access, disrupt clinical judgment, and increase costs. When approvals take days or weeks, patients wait longer for critical care, conditions worsen, and risks rise, putting paperwork and process ahead of the care patients urgently need.
|
|
|
|
Leigh Ann Caldwell
|
|
- Noem impeachment:
Earlier today, House Democratic leadership officially came out in support of impeaching D.H.S. Secretary Kristi Noem if Trump doesn’t fire her “immediately.” The announcement might seem a bit late, considering 160 House Democrats—three-fourths of the caucus—have already signed on to Rep. Robin Kelly’s three articles of impeachment against her. This includes 50 who joined after the killing of Alex Pretti—among them more than half of the 24 most vulnerable House Democrats. But
leadership was already quietly backing the effort, even discussing launching a probe into Noem. “We can do this the easy way or the hard way,” the top three leaders, Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark, and Pete Aguilar, wrote in a statement.
Of course, impeachment is unlikely
without the support of at least a few Republicans. But the effort keeps Noem’s name and ICE’s actions in the spotlight during an election year, and would force Republicans to vote on the issue. Noem has also agreed to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee in March “should she still be D.H.S. secretary,” Judiciary Committee ranking member Dick Durbin wrote on X. Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons and Customs and Border
Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott will testify before the House Homeland Security Committee on February 10 and before its Senate counterpart on the 12th.
I’m hearing that if Trump were to fire Noem, many in the G.O.P. would be okay with it. “A lot of Republicans want her gone anyway,” a senior Senate Republican aide told me. One Republican senator said they’ve had a lot of problems with Noem over her handling of FEMA. “I’m not going to step into that
fight right now. I’m going to leave it up to the White House,” the Republican said, demuring when asked if they wanted Noem to remain in the role.
Indeed, many Republicans see Noem as a walking P.R. disaster given her myriad scandals—including her purchase of two new private jets, reports of her giving massive government contracts to the husband of
one of her top aides, and her inability to do the basic tasks of governance such as signing off on federal grants. After Pretti’s death, Republicans have even less sympathy for Noem, I’m told, even if most won’t say so publicly. One exception is Sen. Lisa Murkowski and retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, who told reporters today that she “should be out
of a job.”
- Trump’s revenge campaign, cont’d: Meanwhile, despite everything else going on in the country, Trump continues to focus on punishing members of his own party who have rebuked him. On Truth Social today, the president endorsed primary challengers to two Indiana state senators who opposed mid-decade redistricting in the state. He also backed a primary challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie, who has clashed with Trump
on issues from the One Big Beautiful Bill to the Epstein files to foreign policy, calling the Kentuckian “the Worst ‘Republican’ Congressman we have had in many years.”
|
|
|
SPONSORED BY: COALITION TO STRENGTHEN AMERICA'S HEALTHCARE
|
When access to care depends on administrative approval, patients pay the price. Excessive prior authorization requirements and AI-assisted
coverage denials delay treatment and shift decisions away from doctors and toward paperwork. These insurer-driven practices add an estimated $83 billion in administrative costs alone. While hospitals work to deliver timely, affordable care, administrative barriers slow treatment, increase risk, drive up costs, and undermine trust—especially when care is time-sensitive and patients need medical decisions guided by clinical judgment, not process.
|
|
|
|
Abby Livingston
|
|
- The Norton reader: D.C.
Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, 88, announced her retirement on Tuesday, marking the end of a storied career in politics at a moment when Democrats are calling for generational change in their caucus. She’s the 14th House Democrat this term to retire without running for higher office, and the 21st member overall to do so.
The race to replace her will attract outsize interest, despite the fact that the D.C. delegate is a non-voting member of the House. So far,
Politics1.com lists no fewer than 17 Democratic contenders for the seat. The two most formidable candidates among them, per a D.C. political insider, are D.C. Councilmembers Robert White and Brooke Pinto. White is an at-large member, while Pinto reps a wealthy ward packed with political operative residents that covers Georgetown, Dupont, Chinatown, and Logan Circle. The primary
will take place on June 16.
|
|
|
Amid his blustering threats over Greenland and the ICE crackdown at home, only 33 percent of
voters now say America is on the right track—Trump’s worst result since he returned to the White House last year.
|
|
|
Donald Trump’s shameless crusade for the Nobel Peace Prize—premised on false claims that he
has ended eight wars—has done little to win over the people who actually award it. Not even close. After Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, the most recent Nobel winner, handed over her prize to Trump in a herculean display of ass-kissing earlier this month, the Oslo-based committee was forced to state repeatedly that the prize “cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others. The decision is final and stands for all time.”
Translation: Sir, you don’t stand a chance. (Hopefully they can send Machado a new one in the mail.)
But it isn’t just a bunch of polite, bespectacled Norwegians resisting Trump’s pleas. Americans don’t think Trump deserves the honor, either. We had our polling partners at Echelon Insights ask voters about that last week, just as Trump was
in Davos threatening European allies with troops and/or tariffs if they didn’t fork over Greenland to the United States. By a 67-27 margin, voters say Trump does not deserve a Nobel Peace Prize, with 56 percent of them saying “definitely not.” The only partisan group that says he does deserve one is, naturally, Republicans. But while Trump-first Republicans say this by a 74-14 margin, Republicans who align with the party rather than Trump say the opposite, by a 52-40 margin.
|
|
|
Of course it’s possible that Americans aren’t fully up to speed on the particulars of the Trump-brokered
peace declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan, or the shaky deal he struck in an attempt to end the decades-old conflict between Rwanda and the Congo. Maybe voters are just waiting for Trump to follow through on his big campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine. But the Echelon data hints at a more likely reason they’re skeptical of Trump’s Nobel credentials: widespread unease with disorder back home. After all, the United States itself doesn’t seem very peaceful these days.
|
A major driver of the discontent appears to be the growing outcry over ICE and Trump’s deportation dragnet as
the ugliest incidents overwhelm our feeds every time we open an app. Echelon found that 56 percent of voters now oppose ICE’s enforcement efforts, with 52 percent saying that ICE is targeting people who are not a threat to public safety and a 45 percent plurality saying that ICE raids make them feel less safe.
Indeed, I’ve been writing for many months that Americans have been souring on ICE, with independent voters driving the downturn in public surveys. In the new poll, Echelon found
that a majority of independent voters (52 percent) say that ICE raids are making them feel “less safe.” Read that line again. Trump was elected as a law-and-order president, but these days, the most crucial bloc of voters say his administration is putting them in harm’s way.
Meanwhile, Echelon found that 58 percent of Americans now say the country is heading in the wrong direction—the highest percentage recorded on that question since Trump returned to office last year. And just 33
percent say the country is headed in the right direction, a new low for his second term. That wrong-track, right-track gap has widened by five points in just one month, since last December’s poll. It’s no surprise the White House is now backpedaling on ICE so furiously.
|
Our new poll also found that Trump’s blustering pursuit of Greenland probably didn’t help his Nobel cause
with Americans. It’s unclear what Trump extracted from our NATO partners in Davos, where he claimed that the United States had won “total access” to Greenland with “no end” and “no time limit.” When asked about this “framework of a future deal” by ABC’s Jonathan Karl, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wouldn’t provide details, either. “I promise you, the deal is not what we had before,” Bessent said. “It is much more fulsome for
the United States.”
However fulsome it may be, by a 60-22 margin, voters say that the U.S. should not seek to acquire Greenland from Denmark. That number includes 67 percent of independents. When pressed on the details of a Greenland acquisition, only 27 percent agreed with the statement, “The U.S. should acquire Greenland to strengthen U.S. national security, and better counter China and Russia in the Arctic region,” which is essentially Trump’s message on the issue. But far
more voters—62 percent—agreed with the statement, “The U.S. should prioritize maintaining strong alliances with European NATO partners, even if that means not pursuing control of Greenland.”
Still, while voters are plainly skeptical of Trump’s negotiating tactics, they’re more open to the idea of taking control of Greenland if it could be somehow obtained without military or financial cost. Indeed, asked whether it would be a good outcome or bad outcome if the U.S. were to
acquire Greenland at a reasonable cost without military intervention, voters were split. About a third (36 percent) said it would be a good outcome, with 37 percent saying it would be a bad outcome and 27 percent unsure.
|
|
|
Finally, a media podcast about what’s actually happening in the media—not the oversanitized, legal-and-standards-approved
version you read online. Join Dylan Byers, Puck’s veteran media reporter, and Julia Alexander, a longtime media analyst, as they sit down with TV personalities, moguls, pundits, and industry executives for raw, honest, sometimes salacious conversations about the business of media and its biggest egos. New episodes publish every Tuesday and Friday.
|
|
|
Unique and privileged insight into the private conversations taking place inside boardrooms and corner offices up and down Wall
Street, relayed by best-selling author, journalist, and former M&A senior banker William D. Cohan.
|
|
|
Need help? Review our
FAQ page or contact us for assistance. For brand partnerships, email ads@puck.news.
You received this email because you signed up to receive emails from Puck, or as part of your Puck account associated with . To stop receiving this newsletter and/or manage all your email preferences, click here.
|
Puck is published by Heat Media LLC. 107 Greenwich St., New York, NY 10006
|
|
|
|